Cases Model (COVID Pillar1 and 2)

Clifford McDowell

Cases Model based on published testing results for PILLAR 1 (Hospitals) and PILLAR 2 (Wider Population). For more information on the testing, routes read PILLAR Testing (COVID).

The cases model is an estimate of the confirmed cases rate per 100,000 population for the given week. This model details where infection rates may be low currently, but which based on their demographics have a higher risk of increasing in the future.

This data series covers Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 cases combined. The source data for this covers England only and is taken from data provided by PHE as part of their weekly surveillance reports. We disaggregate these estimates to Output Area level and re-aggregate to provide estimates at the different geographies presented in the data. The estimates for nations outside of England are scored from the regression model.

This version of the model (v14 upwards) only includes the geo-demographic terms to provide more of a “level playing field” across the whole of the UK. The relative risk of different locations can then be found by sorting on this column in the tables provided, highlighting locations

The data is presented from 0 upwards. Higher values reflect increased numbers of confirmed cases per 100,000 population in the given week assuming that the average level of infections across the UK is the same everywhere. This, therefore, helps to identify locations where the geo-demographic mix means that these neighbourhoods across the UK are more susceptible to an outbreak based on what is happening currently in hotspots elsewhere. For example, this would identify neighbourhoods that have similar levels of risk characteristics to those in Leicester where confirmed cases are estimated to be highest by our “As Is” model.

This data is available in our Free COVID data download.