COVID-19 Infection Model Data

To help the fight against COVID-19 we’ve leveraged our data and skills to create an infection rate model. All data presented below is free to download and use for all non-commercial uses.

Covid infection rate “timeline adjusted”. This is a cumulative infection rate estimate up to the 13th May and is calculated on the assumption that every part of the UK started to become infected at exactly the same time point.

Covid infection rate “as is”. This is an estimate of the cumulative infection rate defined as the proportion of the population aged over 10 that has been infected at some point with COVID-19 up to the 13th May.

This ratio for the number of future cases as a proportion of total cases up to 13th May provides an estimate of future Covid – 19 risk for locations. A ratio value of 1 indicates there are estimated to be as many future cases to come in this location as there have been in total to date. A ratio of 0.1 indicates that future cases are estimated to be only 10% of cases seen so far. This measure therefore provides an indication of how cautious a local area might need to be when considering relaxing lockdown conditions.

The number of Covid deaths as a proportion of deaths from all causes up to 13th May.

About the data

1) The background and details of our analysis and methods used to obtain our results are detailed in the supporting documentation. Anyone considering using our data should spend time familiarising themselves with this documentation before using the data.

2) The COVID-19 infection rate estimates are based on confirmed cases data for England and Wales only. The COVID-19 data we have used for this analysis has been sourced from here:

3) Estimates for Scotland and Northern Ireland have been obtained using our models built on English and Welsh data.

4) At the current time, the data used for England does not include deaths at care homes. We also estimate that only about 1 in 35 COVID-19 cases in the general population has been tested historically in England which means that there is likley to be bias in the data provided by PHE. The ramping up of tests in England and inclusion of care home deaths in published figures is expected to happen shortly and will be reflected in future releases of this data.

5) The geographic summaries have been obtained using ONS lookups between geographies sourced from their postcode look up files (NSPL Feb 2020) . Missing Wards have been estimated from data at LSOA level. All geographies across the UK have complete data

6) Our analysis has not been subject to peer review outside of the Company.

The COVID-19 dataset contains data from other sources which have their own copyright notice as follows:
-Contains OS data © Crown copyright and database rights 2020
-Contains Royal Mail data © Royal Mail copyright and database rights 2020
-Contains National Statistics data © Crown copyright and database rights 2020
-Contains Public Health England Data © Crown copyright and database rights 2020
-Contains Public Health England Data © Crown copyright and database rights 2020

Free COVID-19 Infection Rate Model

Doorda is making available a COVID-19 dataset that provides estimates of risk factors and COVID-19 infection rates at a range of local geographies (Ward, Parliamentary Constituency and Clinical Commission Group).  The plan is to update the data periodically to enable the tracking of infection rates at a local level over time across England and the wider UK.

This dataset is free for Non-Commercial reuse. If you have any suggestions on new data sources or comments on the model please let use know.

Latest version covers up to the 24th May.

Our COVID-19 Infection Rate data is free for Non-Commercial reuse and includes the polygons for the included local geographies to enable easier analysis.

  • Covers whole of the UK
  • Includes local area index scores
  • Data grouped on:
    • Parliamentary Constituencies
    • Electoral Wards
    • National Health Areas (CCG, RHB, LHB and HSCB)
  • Polygons in WKT format
  • Detailed Documentation
  • Updated Weekly

We will be adjusting the model as we learn more and uncover new data sources.

Please note once you’ve created an account you’ll be able to login and download the latest version as soon as it’s released.

Want to Know more about the commercial version?

Our Commercial version contains all the underlying data used to create the model and provides the COVID-19 data at a more granular level.

Key Statistics



MPs Constituencies


Health Areas


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